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Power battery industry has high concentration of production capacity and accelerates industrial chain integration

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Power battery industry has high concentration of production capacity and accelerates industrial chain integration

The power battery is the heart of electric vehicles and the key to the sustainable development of new energy. The rapid growth of new energy vehicle production and sales directly led to the development of China's power battery industry. The power battery policy support system has been continuously improved, the industry scale has remained globally leading, the market concentration has been continuously improved, the company's survival of the fittest has been accelerating, the technical level has been greatly improved, and the product cost is obvious. Reduced and international competitiveness continues to increase. At present, power batteries mainly include lithium ion batteries, nickel hydrogen batteries, fuel cells, lead acid batteries, and super capacitors. Under the same volume weight, the lithium battery has 1.6 times the storage capacity of nickel-metal hydride batteries and 4 times that of nickel-cadmium batteries. It is the best battery that can be applied to electric vehicles. With the gradual deepening of the industrialization process of new energy vehicles, countries and key enterprises all over the world have stepped up efforts to develop the power battery field of the lithium battery industry. The high specific energy power battery technology based on new materials and structures has become the focus of competition among countries, and the current car has been greatly improved. Using power battery safety, longevity, and low temperature characteristics to reduce costs is the direction of industrial technology development.
High productivity concentration
From January to December 2018, the cumulative output of China's power batteries reached 70.6GWh, and the cumulative sales of power batteries reached 62.3GWh. In the whole year of 2018, China's power battery loading totaled 56.89GWh, an increase of 57.02%. According to the battery materials, the annual loading capacity of ternary battery and lithium iron phosphate battery was 33.1GWh and 22.2GWh, respectively, accounting for 58.1% and 39% of the total loading. In 2019, China's power battery market, the market structure of high-quality production capacity, is still in short supply. Increased energy density and lower prices will also make applications such as energy storage feasible in terms of cost, and even benefit other industries such as flying cars. If the power battery is still sold to the energy storage industry, it means that it can reduce its dependence on the automobile industry. Under such circumstances, the barriers for car companies to enter the power battery industry will be higher. From January to April 2019, the cumulative output of China's power batteries reached 27.1GWh, of which ternary batteries produced 16.4GWh, accounting for 60.6% of the total output; lithium iron phosphate batteries produced 9.9GWh, accounting for 36.5% of the total output; other materials The battery accounted for 2.9%. From January to April, China's power battery loading totaled 17.7GWh, an increase of 116.7%. In terms of capacity concentration level, from January to April, the top three companies in China's power battery industry ranked 18.6GWh, accounting for 68.5%; the top five companies produced 20.9GWh, accounting for 77.1%; the top 10 companies A total of 24.2GWh was produced, accounting for 89.1%, and the capacity concentration was very high. The Top10 power battery enterprise's power battery loading capacity is 15.9Gwh, accounting for 89.8% of the total installed capacity.
Power battery industry has high concentration of production capacity and accelerates industrial chain integration
In the next three to four years, the upstream and downstream enterprises of power battery and industrial chain will usher in the most difficult period, especially in the pressure of reducing costs, they will face unprecedented challenges and need to cooperate and overcome difficulties throughout the industry chain. If the company rapidly expands its scale during this period and captures the market through the comprehensive cost-effectiveness of products, it will usher in a huge dividend in the process of comprehensive electrification in the future.
Accelerated integration of the industrial chain
The subsidy of new energy vehicles will lead to the cost and operation pressure of the whole vehicle to the power battery field, which will lead to profound changes in the whole industry. A new round of market integration is brewing. In 2018, the number of domestic power battery companies plummeted, from 135 in 2017 to 90. As market competition intensifies and industry chain integration accelerates, it is estimated that by 2020, there will be only 20 to 30 power battery companies, and more than 80% of enterprises will face elimination. A new round of foreign-invested enterprises entering China may speed up this reshuffle. In addition to the problem of overcapacity, subsidies are falling, and the threshold for foreign investment is also loosening, which will also bring pressure to many power battery companies, or accelerate the market share of the industry.
Industry demand is extremely high growth
With the cancellation of subsidies in 2020, the cost of lithium batteries will continue to decline. The cost-effectiveness of new energy vehicles as consumer goods will gradually be reflected, the penetration rate will continue to increase, and the energy storage industry will soon break through. The demand for power batteries will remain in the next decade. High compound growth rate above %. It is expected that electric vehicles will achieve TCO parity during 2020-2025, and the price of power batteries will drop to 50-70$/kWh by 2025-2030. With the further reduction of the cost of power batteries, the use cost and production cost of new energy vehicles are constantly approaching or even lower than that of conventional fuel vehicles, that is, the use of full cost parity is achieved. Affected by this, the compound growth rate of power batteries in 2019-2023 exceeds 20%, and the demand of the power battery industry will show extremely high growth in the next decade. By 2025, China's power battery installed capacity will reach 236.4Gwh.